New data on foreclosures and serious deliquincies

New data by shows that Florida likely has serious struggles ahead with foreclosures. In a new ranking of metro areas with the most foreclosures and seriously delinquent mortgages (a harbinger of things to come), 15 of the top 20 cities are in Florida. And its capacity for resilience is the face of this strain is mixed.

Miami tops the list with a foreclosure rate of 18.2% and a “seriously delinquency” rate of 9.2%. Overall, 23.6% of its housing stock in serious delinquency or foreclosure. (Serious delinquency rate is defined as the share of all first-lien mortgages in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent.)

Other Florida cities in the top 10 are Palm Coast, Port St. Lucie, Cape Coral-Ft. Myers, Orlando-Kissimmee, Punta Gordo, Tampa-St.Pete-Clearwater.

I pulled out BRR’s “resiliency capacity index” to see where these locales rank on their capacity to rebound from shocks such as high foreclosure rates or other economic distress. The Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) is a single statistic summarizing a region’s status on 12 factors thought to influence the ability of a region to bounce back from a future unknown stress.

Here’s how a selection of the metro areas ranked:

Overall RCI score (out of 363) (low numbers have greater capacity):

Miami: 317

Orlando: 251

Port St. Lucie: 221

Cape Coral: 210

Punta Gordo: 194

Punta Gordo’s more favorable ranking stems from its very high score (83) on community connectivity, which entails the share of the population that votes, belongs to civic organizations, the share who own their own homes, and population stability. The latter two may be challenged with the continuing foreclosure crisis.

Its score on economic capacity at 216 (medium) helped keep it at the top as well. That score may help it better withstand the housing strains caused by foreclosures because of the region’s more diverse economy, greater income equality, more favorable business environment, and other related factors. However, to further improve the odds of rebounding, it could work on building its sociodemographic capacity, which at 246 falls into the “low” category. That category includes such things as poverty rates, the share of the population with health insurance, and the educational attainment of its residents.

Port St. Lucie also had high community connectivity (71), but its low regional economic capacity (302) pulled it down in the ranking. Clearly, improving its business climate, diversifying its economy, and creating jobs with better wages so as to lower the income inequality are all routes to ensure its capacity to rebound.

Miami, on the other hand, ranked 350 on regional economic capacity, putting it near the bottom on this indicator. The lowest ranking is 363. Its sociodemographic capacity was also low (274) and its community capacity was medium (196).  For more on each of these indicators see the “source and notes” in the RCI Index.

Of course, having the capacity to be resilient is no guarantee that in the face of a stress like high foreclosures, the region will effectively respond to and recover. Having higher capacity does imply, however, that the region has factors and conditions thought to position a region well for effective post-stress resilience performance. As case study research may reveal, regions may squander their resilience capacity, performing “under expectations” in the wake of a stress.

While Florida metro areas sit atop a ranking of foreclosure and serious delinquency rates, several other cities have garnered the dubious distinction of having the fastest rising foreclosure or serious delinquency rates. As an analysis of the foreclosure date by the Urban Institute reports, the top two areas with the biggest increase between December 2009 and March 2011 are the Poughkeepsie, NY, metropolitan area, which experienced an 11.9% rise in serious delinquency, followed closely by Seattle at 11.8%.
Check out your region’s resilience capacity here, and the threat of foreclosures and seriously delinquency here.

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